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Nov 7, 2017
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Adobe study expects holiday sales to hit $100B

Published
Nov 7, 2017

Adobe Digital Institute (ADI) has released its Holiday Predictions report outlining five online shopping predictions for 2017, including the expectation that total online holiday sales will break $100 billion.


ADI


ADI's top prediction is that online holiday sales for November and December will grow 13.8% over last year and hit $107.4 billion. Thanksgiving weekend is expected to bring in $19.7 billion in online sales.

Taylor Schreiner, principal analyst at ADI called it a huge opportunity for retailers to make sure their online experience is seamless. Schreiner said, “Consumers expect fluid experiences, and even a small hiccup could mean a lost sale."

ADI's second prediction is that consumers are going to look for deals online. ADI's data showed higher unit growth than revenue growth for apparel, electronics, computers and toys, which indicates consumers are buying a higher volume of less expensive items online. Jewelry was the only category that showed equal revenue and unit growth, likely because of the preference to shop for jewelry in person.

The third prediction from ADI is that consumers will do the majority of their online spending at large retailers. While small retailers have the best mobile conversion rate, large retailers dominated the first half of 2017 and grew their revenue twice as fast as other retailers. ADI expects holiday sales to follow that trend.

ADI's fourth prediction is that mobile visits will increase as more consumers first land on a brand page via their smartphones. Desktops account for 2/3 of year round e-commerce visits but ADI forecasts a shift towards more consumers using mobile platforms. A third of customers have also downloaded apps specific to their favorite retailers.

Schreiner said, “The key is going to be making the mobile experience helpful to the customer, wherever they are in their shopping journey.” A key part of delivering a premium mobile service is creating a more personalized consumer experience and, according to ADI, the best of these mobile experiences will help close sales this year.

ADI's final holiday prediction is that nostalgia will factor into toy purchases. Old franchises including Nerf Guns, Teddy Ruxpin and Super Nintendo will see reissues designed to capture the attention of parents who lived through the introduction of the brands in the 80s.

“A lot of the stuff that was popular in the ’80s and even early ’90s is being refreshed for today’s kids,” Schreiner said.

ADI analyzed data from 1 trillion visits across 4,500 brand sites for the survey. It also looked at 12 million social media mentions and conducted follow up surveys with 1,100 consumers to complete the study.



 

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