This year's holiday sales could break records at over $1 trillion

By

Gabriella Lacombe

Published
Nov 7, 2018

This holiday shopping season is set to bring in $1.002 trillion in U.S. sales, according to an eMarketer report, with the majority of sales coming from brick-and-mortar retailers. 

The market research company raised their Q3 2018 prediction based on low unemployment, strong income growth and high consumer confidence. Assuming the forecast comes to fruition, this will mark the first time holiday sales exceed $1 trillion. 

Set between November 1 and December 31, the 2018 holiday season's revenues are expected to increase in total by 5.8 percent, exhibiting the strongest growth the country has seen since 2011. 

Brick-and-mortar sales for the season are predicted to increase from $863 billion to $878.38 billion, and represent the vast majority of holiday sales at 87.7 percent. E-commerce sales continue to rise, making up 12.3 percent of total holiday retail sales for 2018 and increasing by 16.6 percent to $123.73 billion. However, eMarketer analysts say that physical retailers are holding the top spot by "luring in shoppers with remodeled stores, streamlined checkout and options to buy online, pick up in-store.”

The stellar spending trajectory will be further supported by what eMarketer calls "a favorable holiday calendar," with a full 32 days to shop between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Despite the looming threat of Chinese tariffs, sales are expected to be relatively unaffected until after the holiday season, thanks to retailers stocking up on imports early. According to eMarketer, tariffs on imports from China aren't expected to make a noticeable difference to consumers until 2019. 

The market research company also notes that the share of holiday purchases made via tablets and smartphones is growing, representing 43.8 percent of e-commerce, or 5.4 percent of total holiday sales, in 2018.